Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.255540 6.274176 7.402908 8.741527 10.280612 11.989510 14.025069
2025-02-16 3.388536 4.645918 6.202578 8.248923 10.843031 13.995008 18.084237
2025-02-23 2.298059 3.574394 5.318748 7.824622 11.270729 15.774624 22.024268
2025-03-02 1.606684 2.810519 4.611135 7.409253 11.536579 17.271166 25.680320
2025-03-09 1.220851 2.374551 4.243764 7.352137 12.215710 19.322772 30.220971
2025-03-16 0.929004 2.002247 3.878340 7.200614 12.684969 21.067826 34.437153
2025-03-23 0.797037 1.873331 3.877229 7.611914 14.046380 24.235276 40.987635
2025-03-30 0.653427 1.679452 3.716128 7.710251 14.886309 26.644704 46.549527
2025-04-06 0.532064 1.495221 3.531266 7.725131 15.565850 28.831487 51.903147
2025-04-13 0.432807 1.329632 3.346280 7.701622 16.157794 30.901253 57.195606
2025-04-20 0.400715 1.317612 3.477404 8.308268 17.950284 35.130788 66.329038
2025-04-27 0.346846 1.232471 3.430591 8.542286 19.058815 38.246166 73.774246
2025-05-04 0.302287 1.162447 3.412402 8.849954 20.373313 41.884945 82.470259
2025-05-11 0.246816 1.040761 3.246438 8.813911 21.009261 44.359402 89.328749
2025-05-18 0.191694 0.896733 2.990240 8.530233 21.103163 45.831865 94.498222
2025-05-25 0.144783 0.757819 2.711231 8.141034 20.920238 46.749674 98.702400
2025-06-01 0.117777 0.680179 2.584052 8.100126 21.481068 49.141282 105.776759
2025-06-08 0.093156 0.598528 2.422977 7.943059 21.758675 50.981782 111.911354
2025-06-15 0.085387 0.589263 2.487009 8.392841 23.473877 55.845321 124.119821
2025-06-22 0.072266 0.546444 2.430066 8.500728 24.391101 59.118029 133.393641
2025-06-29 0.059861 0.499313 2.345803 8.517276 25.088218 61.973221 141.995697
2025-07-06 0.049045 0.453326 2.252667 8.491868 25.677106 64.633257 150.346366
2025-07-13 0.047669 0.465309 2.380896 9.150790 28.043345 71.270218 167.062769